This guest submission is by Tim Smith, A former newspaper reporter and current Professor of English, a purveyor of the dynasty trade market with an eye for value. You can find him on twitter @ThirdDownTheory.
Sell that warm feeling you get when you read a glowing Rotowire blurb about your situational talent. Always sell situational hype, never buy. When a player’s main value lies in the potential of his situation, not his talent, sell that player when the hype around his situation swells, but don’t wait too long lest the hype-inflated value bubble bursts!
Prime Example: Theo Riddick
Theo Riddick joined the benches of many a hopeful dynasty team this season as a prime example of a situational talent in an intriguing situation. Riddick flashed ability on the field when the fragile and aging Reggie Bush spent time on the sideline. Certainty in the dynasty community grew that Bush and his inflated contract would be released by the Detroit Lions, and, eventually, this came to be. Riddick was crowned the Fresh-Prince-of-PPR, the next out of-the-backfield, automated screen-machine scooping up an annual 70+ receptions from Stafford. That’s why I sold Theo Riddick, prognosticated PPR wunderkind and dynasty hype man.
See, hype gets you worked up like Flava Flav crashing a Heavy D track (It may be more timely to write something about Pitbull here, but I just can’t do it). The hype of the off-season media immediately impacts player value. When you read positive reports about the players on your team, the hype is enough to warm your spirits as you bask in the glow of the seemingly endless bounds of your dynasty prowess.
Sell the Feeling
Everyone wants a sip of those warm spirits to quench the thirst of the offseason. Don’t let your own quest for the warm glow—precious—get in the way of the simple fact that hype is just that, hype. The projection of a player’s specific situation in an offense is only a guess based on variables. Those variables are subject to change.
In the case of Theo Riddick, I determined that his subpar pedigree, uninspiring athletic profile, and lack of three-down potential makes him a simple product of a situational projection built on a flaw. This flaw assumes that in 2015 Joique Bell will assume lead back duties, Theo Riddick will assume a voluminous pass-catching role, and the Detroit Lions will ignore the running back position in both free agency and the draft.
Donning my ill-fitting GM cap, a depth chart consisting of the 29-year-old Joique Bell and the ‘meh’ Theo Riddick does not inspire organizational confidence. Drafting a rookie running back in the first four rounds of a deep and talented class of rookie running backs is the smart play by Detroit’s front office, and who doesn’t want to look smart?
So, look smart and trade Riddick and those like him before the shining, shimmering hype bubble of their value pops. Don’t catch yourself staring into the reflection of your roster in the smooth sheen of the hype bubble’s tensile surface. Snap out of it. Let the hype machine do its work on your league mates.
Perform an assessment of your situational talent; don’t trade a player projected to have a solid situation if you love his talent and upside. Be smart, evaluate player values and don’t be afraid to sell the hype. I traded Riddick and a 2016 3rd for Eric Decker, a player I like despite his lack of hype or, perhaps, because of it…but that is for another article.
