The idea of staying on the youthful side of things and always looking for multiple high draft picks is not for everyone. But here we know it should be and recently UTH has taken a lot of flak for it. I want to illustrate why selling stud wide receivers on the back side of their 20’s is a good practice with two recent stars. Even if ‘they still have a couple prime years left’, use it as a selling point and not for hoarding.
Brandon Marshall
He came into the league in 2006 and in his nine seasons he has had seven over 1,000 yards. If you sold him while he was in Miami you probably got a great deal and if you sold during his first year in Chicago, bravo. Here are some of his stats according to rotoworld.com during years that I think would have been great times to sell.
2009: Age 26, his fourth season and last in Denver. He missed one game and went for 101 receptions for 1,120 yards and 10 touchdowns.
2011: Age 27, his sixth season and last in Miami, 81 receptions for 1,214 and 6 touchdowns.
2012: Age 28, his seventh season and first in Chicago, 118 receptions for 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Selling during the peak is what gives you the optimal return, multiple firsts. Not everyone can hit eject when a guy is going for a 1,500 yard season. You are smiling now though if you did, now that he is in New York and will be lucky to sniff half that with the Jets.
Another example you ask? How about Calvin Johnson. One of the best wide receivers we will ever see, in my humble opinion. He is 29 now and the time to sell was probably a couple of years ago even though you would have missed some great numbers. Here are some stats, again from rotoworld.com.
Calvin Johnson
2011: Age 26, 96 receptions for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns.
2012: Age 27, 122 receptions for 1,964 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Both those seasons were phenomenal. In 2013 and 2014 he was hurt and played 14 then 13 games. So of course his numbers fell. With his numbers though, so did his value. Now he is an injury risk, people are doubting Matthew Stafford even more and there is a great number two getting targets in Golden Tate. I do not believe his value is coming back to what it was in 2011 and 2012.
These are only two recent examples but I believe they help illustrate some of why we preach to sell a player on the upswing. When they are almost to the peak of their career is when the value is the highest. These last two off seasons Julio Jones and A.J. Green (both 26 years old now) were calling for the equivalent of three, sometimes four, first round picks. After the 2014 rookies flooded the market, that value became a little harder to reach. During this season though, when a few sophomores inevitably have a few bad games, be ready to sell those aging studs for absolute max value. Yes, you might lose out on another year of elite numbers from them. If we plan ahead though, we can get elite numbers from the next rising star. After all, I would much rather be jumping from a rising star than tumbling down with a falling one.
